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Will we see state-controlled intranets start replacing the Internet in 2012?

New year, new opportunities (even to see the end of SOPA)

I have so much I want to blog about from last year and for this, but I guess I'm suffering from a bit of a blogger's block.

In the meantime, here's wishing you all a happy and prosperous new year and a link to a much more optimistic outlook on law proposals such as SOPA, and how it all will play out, than what I've held until now:

"SOPA is a terrible act of legislation because of some of the words used in the bill. Words that were put in by people desperately trying to preserve the problems of the past. And the level of desperation is a good measure of the way time is running out."

I'm not sure if I fully share the optimism, but as always lots of food for thought from JP Rangaswami in this blogpost on why he's excited about 2012.

NewYear2012

Comments

FWIW I block because I am trying "too" hard or trying to do more things than I have time to do properly ("too" much). So my New Year's resolution is to be more chilled and patient, particularly with my writing; and to not let those "too"'s win. And I wish you a chilled New Year, *cough* too.

[Oh and 2012 is *definitely* going to be the year of HTML 5, and probably the year of Android tablets break through. It could also be the year Microsoft strikes back; Redmond are always at their best when they're coming from behind, and there are some sexy features being baked into Windows 8 - and I don't think I've ever used the word "sexy" to describe Microsoft's offerings before.]

Spot on. That's a big part why I've found it difficult to get any other writing than what's been commissioned and come with a deadline done recently.

I have soo many other things I want to write, so many I don't know quite where to start - and am also held back by the perfectionist in me which tend to lead me into procastrination when there are no deadlines to supress it. So a chilled new year might work for me, though part of what's holding me back is that I have this major book project which I need to get to the second stage - finish and send off that progess plan - so I'll know if it it'll sink or swim.

Yes, I can see HTML5 take off in 2012, it was in one of the obligatory "trends for the year"-pieces I wrote for New Year. I've yet to see an Android-tablet that's really impressed me though, but perhaps I haven't seen enough or spent enough time with them. What's your favourite(s)? Microsoft, sexy? Hmmm...

Yeah, I am that perfectionist as well. So my new favourite phrase is, "It doesn't matter". It doesn't matter that I've not written a post explaining why ".brand"s will be worse than SOPA/PIPA. It doesn't matter that I've taken so long to reply to you. It doesn't matter that I haven't shoehorned in a joke about Michael Winner and that meerkat. If it's not "good enough" (a previous catchphrase-based attempt at beating this), and there's no "next time" (ditto): then it just doesn't matter. I'm really determined to beat destructive perfectionism this year. If I feel myself getting irritated because I've zoomed in on an unimportant myopic detail, then I am going to stop, put it to one side until I become serene. If something's worth writing, it will be worth writing in six months. So I plan to take my time, pick the things that are really important, and enjoy myself. Hopefully, that way I will avoid procrastination. We'll see how it goes. Good luck with the book.

Re the predictions. I hate to point it out, but you flagged up HTML5 in last year's blog. I didn't buy it until I discovered that javascript was only 1.5 times slower than native code. Adobe's abandonment of Flash and acquisition of phonegap.com suggests they see HTML5 as ripe, too. And Windows 8 will make non-HTML applications into second class citizens. So I expect HTMl5 to be ubiquitous by the end of the year. But I have no existing investment in java/.NET/Flash/etc, and the job adverts are _only_ requiring two years experience with javascript—for mature technologies they typically require three—so maybe we're still a year away.

The Android prediction was mine from year. (I know where I went wrong, but didn't manage to squeeze it into a blog...) The HP TouchPad fiasco showed there's demand for a cheap, "good enough" tablet. It may be the Kindle Fire is that device. But in Ice Cream Sandwich, Google have *finally* upgraded Android to properly accommodate tablets. And the "quad"-core Tegra 3 will give the iPad and your desktop a run for your money. (Taken together, one reviewer said "The UI now glides about with a baby oil smoothness that makes even iOS 5 on the iPad 2 look jerky." https://www.reghardware.com/2012/01/19/review_asus_eee_pad_transformer_prime_tf201_docking_android_tablet/page2.html) And finally: my sister wants a tablet. I told her to wait six months, but that's a good bellwether. So unless Apple release a budget iPad, the pieces are there for Android to strike back. Although, again, I could be off by a year - perhaps it won't be till my mum wants one that they really start to dominate.

Ha, ha. Plenty of wisdom in that. I have my own roughly equivalent of "it doesn't matter", which is acknowledging that "that's just the way it is" which doesn't come easy for me - but I've got a half-written blog post about that filed away somewhere and one of these days I might even get around to finishing it ;-)

That's also a result of how work always comes first for me, and I tend to seek out deadline-driven environments to temper my perfectionism - hence my profession. But I'm really quite fed up with how it's far too easy to end up working around the clock as self-employed, so I'll think I'll be on the lookout to join the ranks of the employed in 2012.

As for tech trends it will be interesting to see. Did I mention Html5 as a trend for 2011? I can't remember that, but I do think it will be big in 2012. While talking to people about tech trends for 2011, one guy I interviewed said when tech predictions go wrong it's often a matter of getting the timing wrong. When I looked over the tech trends we mentioned for 2011 at work (not on this blog), most of them was spot on but the timing was wrong for two-three of them (has yet to happen / become mainstream - such as the internet of things which we see lots of interesting potential for now but is still some way away - certainly if you think in terms of when it becomes mainstream).

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