Has the City really lost its marbles over media?
July 13, 2008
Well, perhaps not. Despite these ever so eloquent musings of Stephen Glover last Monday, it is looking increasingly gloomy, at least in the short-term, for an industry that relies so heavily on the health of the advertisment sector (which is a bit like becoming financially dependent on someone with a serious bipolar disorder, oscillating between extravagant shopping sprees and shutting the door to the world in periods of bottomless depression).
Just this evening (8pm), this ticked in to my newsreader from Financial Times: Marketing budgets over the next 18 months are facing their sharpest falls since the terrorist attacks of September 11 2001, according to a survey widely regarded as a confidence barometer for the broader economy as well as the advertising industry. The Institute of
For today’s Independent, Keith McGregor, restructuring partner at Ernst & Young, told the paper: "Mistrust and trepidation have spread. Raising capital is perilous and equity markets are demanding unprecedented reassurance, especially from the leveraged and those exposed to home construction or the consumer."
Exposed to the consumer? Yes, in every possible way. Leveraged, or highly geared, yes, that applies to many media companies as well, especially a company such as Mecom, of course, which is financed by debts and has suffered a terrible beating on the stock market recently. Besides, how strategical are its investors, and how patient if the advertisement slump drags on? However, the European markets it operates in aren’t necessarily as badly hit by the downturn as the UK is, but this - that many of the companies on my beat operate in several markets - is why I’ve been watching and waiting for the ghost of recession to spread through Europe, and I have to admit I expected to see it effect advertisement spend and financial results much sooner.
Still, Nils Pratley wrote in The Guardian recently: “Buy when there is blood on the streets, advised Sir John Templeton, the celebrated investor and philanthropist... It is excellent advice, as Templeton proved time and again, and a few market shrewdies are asking whether current conditions are sufficiently bloody to be tempting.”
Not all media companies are equally immune to raiders: in desperate times such as these ownership structures could shift – both through raids and consolidation - as could the advertisers’ favour. The Guardian recently quoted Sir Martin Sorrell, chief executive of the advertising group WPP, saying: "The pressure on the newspaper industry in western European markets is both structural, because of disintermediation by the web, and cyclical because of slowing growth rates. The cyclical part will return, the structural one will not. The simple fact is that more people are reading newspapers or newspaper content online, rather than offline."
This reminded me of an interview I did with Norwegian media researcher Arne Krumsvik a while back, where he speculated that should we see a serious advertisement slump in Norway, it might be the death knell for the print editions of tabloids like VG and Dagbladet, the famous last straw that finally made advertisers seek shelter online (already the online profits of these papers much surpass their print profits).
Kristine
I'd be interested to know how you see Online Media surviving in a recession?
Matt W
Posted by: Matt Wardman | July 14, 2008 at 11:04 PM
Depends on whether or not we're talking about 'mature' online ventures and markets.
In times of trouble like these, new intitiatives always have to prove they are sustainable. Overtly optimistic ventures launched during the boom are often forced to call it a day and we may see the end of many a young and 'immature' venture (on- and offline).
But for products like VG online and VG print (Norway's most read newspaper and news site - the former with a profit maring of roughy 40%, the latter roughly 14%), the recession may prove more devastating to the print paper than the online paper.
But then, if online is where the money is, it's a different ballgame compared to those struggling to make money online.
Still, I think in key online markets, such as the UK and the US, the digital competition is such that it would be stupid to cut back on, or halt, online development. More integration btwn online and print would be more likely, or at least logical. But all depends on where the money is and what companies think they can get away with. It may also prove a disadvantage to be big and heavy, such as many MSM are, easier to be light-weight and flexible, such as some online start-ups (but this is almost a post in itself, you have to pardon the very general nature of this reply:-) )
Posted by: Kristine | July 16, 2008 at 12:21 PM